Tropical Storm Risk maintains above-normal Hurricane season forecast, with enhanced late season activity possible
7 June 2022
Tropical Storm Risk’s (TSR) pre-season forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity continues to forecast a season with above-normal activity. The update backs its earlier forecast of 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major (Category 3 and above) hurricanes.
Whilst uncertainties still remain, TSR predicts that the 2022 hurricane season will be slightly less active than the two previous years, but may carry an increased risk in the latter part of the storm season. Ten years on from the late-season Superstorm Sandy, TSR point out that some Niño forecasts predict a slight strengthening of the current La Niña conditions through the autumn, which if verified, would increase the chance of enhanced late season activity.
In April, EuroTempest, the leading provider of European storm and weather risk management services to the (re)insurance market, announced that it had signed a license agreement to take over the day to running of TSR from University College London (UCL). This followed the retirement of Professor Mark Saunders at the end of April, who was a leading figure in weather risk modelling and led the UCL research group that worked with UCL Business to deliver the innovative real-time weather service.
EuroTempest’s Commercial Director Nick Wood said: “TSR’s latest update is consistent with the initial prediction of an active storm season. We consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be slightly warmer than normal by August-September 2022, and for weak La Niña conditions to persist through late summer and into the autumn.
“This is likely to contribute to reduced trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Both these environmental factors are expected to enhance North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2022.”
Speaking about EuroTempest’s running of TSR, Wood added: “Tropical Storm Risk is a well-known and respected service which provides unrivalled storm warning and impact forecasting, and is relied upon by the insurance and reinsurance markets to provide a high level of detailed storm information.
“I would like to thank Professor Saunders and the UCL team for the service they created in improving the readiness of the insurance industry to major hurricane, cyclone and typhoon events. The data we will continue to provide will enable the industry to ready resources, understand likely impacts to the supply chain, improve mitigation measures and manage financial impacts of such events.”
Under EuroTempest, TSR will continue to provide free and paid-for storm forecasting services, as well as free seasonal alerts and updates. It also provides overlay information on insured exposures and calculates likely damage scenarios for (re)insurers.
Dr Steven Schooling from UCL Business commented: “The addition of the TSR service to EuroTempest’s product portfolio strengthens the reach across the insurance industry of this highly innovative UCLB spinout and we look forward to seeing further growth in the use of the TSR service and wider business prospects for EuroTempest.”